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Potato starch: supply and demand are negative, potato starch prices in June or steady decline
Release time:
2024-05-29
[Introduction] Potato starch market performed poorly in May, with increased supply and demand generally leading to lower prices. Potato starch production may continue in June. Downstream demand is in the traditional off-season, and there is still resistance to high prices. It is difficult to expect a large volume of transactions. It is expected that potato starch prices will fall steadily in June.
As of May 28, the average market price of potato starch powder in the main producing areas was 8437.37 yuan/ton, down 4.04 percent from the previous month and up 11.01 percent from the same period last year. In May, potato starch spring production continued, the number of manufacturers increased compared with the previous month, the supply increased, superimposed on the low price of spring powder, the negative market. Terminal demand performance is general, sales area market dealers inventory consumption is slow, food and beverage demand improvement is limited, superimposed on the high price resistance mentality still exists, food processing enterprises to reduce the amount of potato starch, poor demand, together led to the decline in potato starch prices.
Increased supply of raw materials and increased spring production of potato starch
According to data from Zhuochuang Information, the potato planting area in the first cropping area increased by 13.35 year-on-year in 2023. During the production period, the growth was good and the potato yield increased. In 2023, potato starch winter production consumed part of the stock of potatoes, superimposed on the Spring Festival to pull the demand improvement and snow lido potato transactions and other comprehensive impact, potato inventory pressure reduced.
In May, with the increase in the number of potatoes on the market in the secondary cropping area, the sale of bad stock potatoes, and the increase in stock potatoes such as germination after long-term storage, led to the continuous production of potato starch in spring and the increase in spring output. According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, as of May 28, the spring output of potato starch in 2024 was about 55000 tons, an increase of 266.67 over the same period last year. On the other hand, due to the deviation of the quality of potato starch in spring, the price is lower than that of autumn powder 400-500 yuan/ton. Increased supply overlay prices are low, the market is short.
No improvement in terminal demand, transactions to maintain just demand-oriented
From the analysis of potato starch demand in the past five years, there are obvious light and peak seasons for potato starch demand, of which the third quarter of 2. is the traditional low season for potato starch, with a demand of 80000-100000 tons, and the traditional peak season for potato starch in the fourth quarter of 1., with a downstream demand of 140000-180000 tons.
In addition to being in the off-season, the downstream demand in 2024 was lower than that in the same period last year. Affected by the poor terminal demand, the market turnover in the sales area was average and the inventory consumption of dealers was slow. Food and beverage demand decreased, sales of three powder processing enterprises were damaged, and the operating rate decreased. In addition, under the influence of the high price of potato starch, three-flour processing enterprises and food processing enterprises have reduced the amount of potato starch and increased the proportion of cassava starch, modified cassava starch and modified corn starch. According to the data analysis of Zhuochuang Information, the reasonable price difference between potato starch and cassava starch is 3000 yuan/ton. After exceeding this price difference, the use of cassava starch instead of potato starch by three-flour and food processing enterprises has increased, potato starch price is higher than cassava starch 4200 yuan/ton. As well as buy up do not buy down driven, downstream wait-and-see sentiment heating up, transactions to maintain just need-based.
The market lacks bullish support, and potato starch prices may fall steadily in June.
From the perspective of supply, spring production may last for 7-10 days, but after the end of spring production, factories in Henan, Hebei, Qinhuangdao and other places will maintain production, and the supply side will continue to increase, which is a bad market.
From the demand side, potato starch is in the traditional demand off-season, superimposed on the downstream of the high price of potato starch resistance mentality still exists, as well as buy up not to buy down driven, the transaction is difficult to improve the possibility of a negative market.
From the cost point of view, the price of starch potato rose continuously during the autumn of 2023 production, rose to the highest level in nearly a decade, production costs are also the highest in nearly a decade, superimposed storage and other costs, high costs or to a certain extent to support the market.
To sum up, the supply and demand side in June is both negative. Potato prices are expected to fall steadily in June, but the cost pressure in factories is high, and the current mainstream market prices are close to the cost line, which may support the market to a certain extent and limit the price decline. Potato starch prices are expected to fall at 100-200 yuan/ton next month, and then temporarily stabilize.
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